background
To be prepared for future crises and disasters, crisis organizations use scenarios. Scenarios describe possible ways in which a crisis could evolve, taking into account effects across domains. The COVID-19 crisis, for example, was initially framed as a health crisis, but quickly effects were also observed in the economic social and security domain. A main advantage of using scenarios is that biases such as tunnel vision (for example only focusing on one domain) can be prevented.
Possible research questions:
1. How to take account of group differences in scenario planning?
2. Are methods such as Morphological Analysis effective in generating scenarios?
3. How could scenario generation be supported by AI such as a Large Language Model?
Information
Please contact Steven Watson (s.j.watson@utwente.nl) when you are interested in this assignment.
Literature
Crawford, M. M., & Wright, G. (2022). The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 183, 121937.
Spaniol, M. J., & Rowland, N. J. (2023). AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(2), e148.
Vallet, F., Puchinger, J., Millonig, A., Lamé, G., & Nicolaï, I. (2020). Tangible futures: Combining scenario thinking and personas-A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, 117, 102513.